Clausewitz enlisted in the Prussian army in 1792, and in 1793–95 he took part (and was commissioned) in … “Fog of war” is Clausewitz’s way of describing the opaqueness and resultant uncertainty inherent in any military campaign. For most readers of military history two theorists stand out, the Prussian Carl von Clausewitz and the Chinese Sun Tzu. For him although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating .Despite the frequent invocations of his name in recent years, especially during the Gulf War, there is… 126 Pracha Uthit Rd., Bang Mod, Thung Khru, Bangkok, Thailand 10140; Call : +66 2470-8368; Monday - Friday 08.30 am - 16.30 pm Clausewitz observed that "The great uncertainty of all facts presents a peculiar difficulty in war, because all actions take place in something virtually akin to dusk, which in addition like fog or moonlight, gives the objects an exaggerated size and a grotesque view." His experience in those conflicts led him to develop a view of war as the archetypal “realm of uncertainty.” Deeply influenced by the example of Napoleon, Clausewitz believed that in times of extreme uncertainty, great leaders … Frank Knight: Risk, Uncertainty And Profit. in what is the book’s greatest contribution—an inspired description of the uncertainty in which wars are fought and the elements of military genius that such uncertainty brings to the fore. It's lifting. Clausewitz, nevertheless, makes a last stand. Clausewitz describes a center of gravity as the “most effective target for a blow.” In Book 6, it’s true that he defines this somewhat narrowly as it relates to troops ( “wherever forces are most concentrated.”). “War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.” — Carl von Clausewitz quotes from Quotefancy.com Uncertainty analysis encompasses the quantification and reduction of uncertainty. Shadows of uncertainty: Clausewitz's timeless analysis of chance in war. Clausewitz work has embedded this idea in his very articulation on uncertainty and friction where the various contact of chance at the micro level, which may be concealed, can develop and produce effects at the macro level. The "Fog of War": The concept is traced to Clausewitz and neatly captures the tactical, and moral, uncertainty of decision-making in the heat of battle. Insofar as international politics is clouded in ambiguity, Western beholders themselves cannot transcend it. Chapter 1 The Nature of Command and Control “War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. “Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating.”. His book War, Clausewitz and the Trinity appeared in 2013 (Ashgate/Routledge). Carl von Clausewitz, Prussian general and military thinker, whose work Vom Kriege (1832; On War) has become one of the most respected classics on military strategy. Carl Phillip Gottfried, or was it Gottlieb, von Clausewitz—even his name has some uncertainty—existed, at least once Napoleon, the werewolf of Europe, the God of War, was truly exiled, in the shadowy borderlands between the world of ideas and the world of men of action. People in the markets prefer certainty versus uncertainty. No theory could be of any value, he maintains, that did not account for these interconnected elements – the uncertainty of all information, the importance of moral factors, and, lending emphasis to both of these, the unpredictable reaction of the adversary. In resource evaluation and reservoir management, uncertainty is prevalent. On the one hand – and based on his famous dictum that war is the continuation of politics by other means – he suggests understanding strategy as a socio-political (rhetorical) mechanism through which people can be convinced in deliberations about a specific course of action. He argued that many factors on which war actions are based are wrapped in a fog. Login; Hi, User . 10. Modern developments have not rendered these insights obsolete and, if anything, they hold even greater relevance to contemporary warfare. Click here to search books using title name,author name and keywords. However, Carl von Clausewitz (1780‐1831) developed a more accurate and realistic conception. According to Colin Gray, “…to the best of my knowledge, no one has unpacked Clausewitz’s theory of war more convincingly than does Waldman.” 10 With great skill and in accessible prose, Waldman presents the subject of war in Clausewitz’s Trinitarian terms with the respect for complexity, nuance, ambiguity, and uncertainty that the master’s treatment implies. chance and uncertainty in the mind of Clausewitz was the nature of the enemy opposing him: the great Napoleon Bonaparte. High quality example sentences with “realm of uncertainty” in context from reliable sources - Ludwig is the linguistic search engine that helps you to write better in English Of particular interest is the essay by Martin van Creveld entitled "The Eternal Clausewitz". 9. Unexpected disruptions caused by fog and friction are always major challenges for logisticians. These recommendations are under the five general areas of technology, leadership, training, experience, and planning. - Karl von Clausewitz "The best form of defense is attack." Carl von Clausewitz, Prussian general and military thinker, whose work Vom Kriege (1832; On War) has become one of the most respected classics on military strategy. Why is it bad?Is it likely to rise into the US residential pelection? T1 - 'Shadows of Uncertainty' T2 - Clausewitz's Timeless Analysis of Chance in war. Clausewitz considered that the French Revolution had removed many of the constraints that had kept war separate from the rest of society. Clausewitz explained war as uncertainty realm. If you have (or are) studying war, the name Clausewitz will always pop up, and for good reason too. “The great uncertainty of all data in war is because all action, to a certain extent, planned in a mere twilight – like the effect of a fog – gives things exaggerated dimensions and unnatural appearance.” — Carl von Clausewitz Clausewitz noted that “war is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. Deep analysis of his concepts shows that the Clausewitzianthoughts are relevant in modern day warfare. Deep analysis of his concepts shows that the Clausewitzianthoughts are relevant in modern day warfare. – … [13] Clausewitz, 798-799. The epistemological bent found in Clausewitz’s “Theory of Victory” is consistent with Engberg-Pedersen’s claim. Clausewitz’s sets his philosophy in the context of war, but his philosophy transcends that milieu. Taylor & Francis Group Logo. Can it be quantified? – Karl Von Clausewitz . The defining problem of command and control that overwhelms all others is the need to deal with uncertainty.13 Were it not for uncertainty, command and control would be a simple matter of managing resources. You may crop, resize and customize Carl von Clausewitz quote images and backgrounds. (3) Indeed, the foundations for war's uncontrollable nature stems from human clashes of wills and fog--the mental state of confusion or uncertainty developed from available information. Finally, chance and uncertainty beset the whole enterprise. In contrast, in the area of intelligence, von Clausewitz’s treatise is controversial, since he had relatively little to say on the topic, apart from seemingly ruling out its usefulness, in one passage even equating it with uncertainty and error. Your Account; Logout; Search: Advanced Search. .The commander must work in a medium which his eyes cannot see; which his best deductive powers cannot always fathom; and with which, because of constant changes, he can rarely become familiar.” War Without Fear: DepSecDef Work On How AI Changes Conflict. The trinity was ‘wondrous’ because it made possible the coming together of the people and the modern state. Uncertainty in the digital environment Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating. Most of the literature concerning von Clausewitz’s stance on intelligence has tried to explain or reconcile this paradoxical hostility. Collection of the best Carl von Clausewitz quote wallpapers. Carl von Clausewitz Quotes and Sayings - Page 1. – Ilya Prigogine. — Carl von Clausewitz, On War Every time I read another armchair strategist comment on the […] Engberg-Pedersen’s work describes On War’s poetics and Clausewitz’s project as united by the desire to manage and train for uncertainty in war. – Karl Von Clausewitz. AU - Waldman, Tom. A soldier holds a PD-100 mini-drone during the PACMAN-I experiment in Hawaii. Although Clausewitz’s concept of friction contains other elements, I am interested in is the friction coming from ambiguous information. Frequently disregarded in theory, Clausewitz maintained that chance, uncertainty, and friction are central to the nature of war, along with the human qualities required to overcome them such as courage, determination, and adaptability. American politics between June 2015 and January 2021 was shrouded in what you might call the Fog of Trump. Waldman’s … His answer has two elements that are fused in the German word Politik. Today, the ideas of Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) are employed almost ubiquitously in strategic studies, military history and defence literatures, but often in a manner which distorts their true meaning. In fact, the disparity between cultures creates a diversity of perceptions. Skip to main content.sg. In it, Clausewitz tries… This indecision and friction make risk calculations uncertain and deny the ability to calibrate an adequate response, while trying to … “Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating.”. ‘Absolute war’ was the logical end of all wars, but one that was constrained by political considerations and the advantages of a defensive posture. Now I've learned, the hard way, that some poems don't rhyme, and some stories don't have a clear beginning, middle, and end. Uncertainty is a word that is used a lot these days. It's lifting. Another weakness in Clausewitz’s work can be seen in his case for the aforementioned three imperatives of war (the destruction of the armed forces, occupying forces, and the broken spirit of the enemy). In particular, his unfinished magnum Waldman, T. (2010). - Karl von Clausewitz "The conqueror is always a lover of peace; he would prefer to take over our country unopposed." ; 5 Why can the civil war be described as the first modern war quizlet? Routledge, Feb 17, 2016 - Technology & Engineering - 216 pages. The author believes that the key to coping with uncertainty is to understand it. Thomas Waldman. The main cause for uncertainty is the difficulty in determining the political and military goals of the opponent. Uncertainty and information are related to each other. “Pursue one great decisive aim with force and determination.”. (1986) Paperback at Amazon.com. Western … Despite the frequent invocations of his name in recent years, especially during the Gulf War, there is something deeply perplexing about the work of Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831). This element of uncertainty is key in Clausewitz’s philosophy; he believes strongly that war is in large part determined by chance and possibility, that the individual nature of war makes it inherently unpredictable. Clausewitz’s understanding of war was developed in the context of the modern state that emerged in Europe from around 1500. Carl von Clausewitz. Consequently, "the commander must trust his judgment and stand like a rock on which waves break in vain Nonlinearity manifest Itself in Clausewitz book, On War, through the study of inpredictitable factors derive from interactions ,friction and chance. There he argues that experience is the only thing that can help genius function properly in war’s danger and uncertainty. Source. The word "fog" (German: Nebel), but not the exact phrase, in reference to 'uncertainty in war' was introduced by the Prussian military analyst Carl von Clausewitz in his posthumously published book, Vom Kriege (1832), the English translation of which was published as On War (1873): He found a second father in Scharnhorst at the age of twenty-one. Clausewitz was adamant that earlier Enlightenment theorists had devoted insufficient attention to the concepts of chance and uncertainty. Von Clausewitz a Bayesian? Y1 - 2010. Carl von Clausewitz (1780 –1831) served in the Rhine Campaigns and fought in the Napoleonic Wars from 1806 to 1815 when the Prussian army invaded France during the French Revolution. Clausewitz work has embedded this idea in his very articulation on uncertainty and friction where the various contact of chance at the micro level, which may be concealed, can develop and produce effects at the macro level. For Hegel, it is in war that individuality is reconciled with social solidarity. Clausewitz's thinking is often described as Hegelian because of his dialectical method; but, although he was probably personally acquainted with Hegel, there remains debate as to whether or not Clausewitz was in fact influenced by him. Here you will find all the famous Carl von Clausewitz quotes. On the one hand - and based on his famous dictum that war is the continuation of politics by other means - he suggests understanding strategy as a socio-political (rhetorical) mechanism through which people can be convinced in deliberations about a specific course of action. [vi] The function of war. An understanding of the uncertainty of war and warfare is critical to reaching an understanding of special operations. Read honest and unbiased product reviews from our users. Lecture International Security, October 2013. “Our knowledge of circumstances has increased, but our uncertainty, instead of having diminished, has only increased. . On the one hand - and based on his famous dictum that war is the continuation of politics by other means - he suggests understanding strategy as a socio-political (rhetorical) mechanism through which people can be convinced in deliberations about a specific course of action. -Carl von Clausewitz Where Clausewitz’s work becomes relevant is in its capacity to acknowledge that despite military transformations, war is and always will be the subject of uncertainty and the unexpected, namely of the ‘fog’ and ‘friction’ of war. American politics between June 2015 and January 2021 was shrouded in what you might call the Fog of Trump. 40, No. Clausewitz therefore deserves a section of his own in this paper. ; 3 Why is the civil war considered the first modern war Brainly? Click here to search book Thus, Fog is the uncertainty in war, friction is the countless minor incidents that make the simple very difficult, and chance is the unpredictable circumstances that consistently occur in war. lect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating. N2 - The concept of chance has often been approached by military thinkers in either an unreasonably fatalistic or complacently dismissive manner. rumors (information gained by remote observation or spies) uncertainty about one’s own strength and position. Clausewitz teaches us that war is filled with fog, friction, and chance. He is categorical that, “most intelligence reports in war are contradictory; even more are false, and most are uncertain,” (Clausewitz, p. 117). What is it? For example, when Clausewitz states that the events of a war can change policy, according to Brodie Clausewitz cannot really mean this, "for to admit even a high probability of such a feedback effect would be to destroy his basic contention that war is an instrument of policy and not the reverse." “The future is uncertain… but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity.”. The "Fog of War": The concept is traced to Clausewitz and neatly captures the tactical, and moral, uncertainty of decision-making in the heat of battle. 1 Review. Clausewitz’ second stream of thought investigates how strategy could be studied instead. “Uncertainty is the … Then, when I attempted to return to the half-finished musing, I was unable to think of anything to add. Unlike Heisenberg, Clausewitz did not have the mathematical tools available at the time, or even the language to describe the full warfare complexity at times, but he definitely grappled with uncertainty in war and battle as his most fundamental core intellectual construct. Des milliers de livres avec la livraison chez vous en 1 jour ou en magasin avec -5% de réduction . Fog of War “Fog of war” is a term Clausewitz uses to evoke the uncertainty and danger of the war zone. But Clausewitz not only admits this feedback effect he specifically underscores it in the passage under discussion, … Skip to main content. However, Carl von Clausewitz (1780‐1831) developed a more accurate and realistic conception. Unfortunately, Clausewitz is more often quoted than read, more venerated than understood. Agriculture; Construction; Defence & Military; Education If IR scholars are unsure how Clausewitz fits into the grand theories that dominate the fieldRealism, Liberalism, Marxism, and Constructivismor if he fits at all, it seems doubtful that he can guide their thinking. Account & Lists Returns & … CLAUSEWITZ’S INTELLECTUAL CONSISTENCY, THE early emergence of ideas that occupied him throughout his life, was paralleled by the development of personal relationships as a young man that were to dominate his maturity. We have collected all of them and made stunning Carl von Clausewitz wallpapers & posters out of those quotes. One possible reason for their relative inattention to Clausewitz stems from uncertainty over how to characterize him. Hello Select your address All Hello, Sign in. Clausewitz' second stream of thought investigates how strategy could be studied instead. Of the many accolades be­ stowed on Napoleon, one has particular relevance for us here: his mastery of deception and operations security:8 Napoleon's strategic deployments were carefully planned to set the stage for the ” In describing friction, Clausewitz states; “ We have identified danger, physical exertion, intelligence and friction as the elements that coalesce to form the atmosphere of war, and turn it to a medium that impedes activity . The less controlled the use of violence is by one side, the lengthier the war. Here . For him although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating .Despite the frequent invocations of his name in recent years, especially during the Gulf War, there is… 8. His treatise, On War, is one of the foundational texts in the study of war. uncertainty, along with recommendations for coping with uncertainty in the employment of airpower. It is his theory that can sharpen our understanding of war as a human affair, which is invested with violence, uncertainty, and political disputes. Uncertainty and information are related to each other. . Preparing For The Worst- And The Best “No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength.” Carle von Clausewitz ‘Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.’ Mike Tyson. Clausewitz was a realist in many different senses and, while in some respects a romantic, also drew heavily on the rationalist ideas of the European Enlightenment. … Clausewitz felt lonely and away from his friends, especially Gneisenau (now serving in Berlin), and Marie yearned to be back among friends, family, and the hurly-burly of politics in the capital. 10, Issue 3, September 2010), and "Politics and War: Clausewitz's Paradoxical Equation" was published in Parameters (vol. Also mentioned is the notion of ‘rational calculus,’ that states intrinsically use violence to achieve a desired end. Clausewitz listed eight major sources of the “tremendous friction” that makes even the simplest plans and actions so difficult to execute in war: insufficient knowledge of the enemy. Clausewitz's theory of romantic warfare promotes the idea of striking first: "The Statesman who, knowing his instrument to be ready, and seeing War inevitable, hesitates to strike first is guilty of a crime against his country" (1873/2013). Uncertainty Quotes. “No one starts a war--or rather, no one in his sense ought to do so--without first being clear in his … Life is about not knowing, having to change, taking the moment and making the best of it, without knowing what's going to happen next. Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fa... CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ Our preference is the sooner the better. This article was originally published in Arabic in Al-Hayat. This unholy trinity varies not only from war to war but also within each war. . Understanding these three concepts is crucial to understanding that war by its very nature is violent. Clausewitz also seeks to define war by its function in human affairs: ‘what does it do?’ rather than ‘what is it?’. He does not suggest uncertainty is more impor-tant than the other factorsŠdanger, exertion, suf-fering, chanceŠor than their antidotesŠcoup d™oeil and determination. There are more than 69+ quotes in our Carl von Clausewitz quotes collection. The timelessness of the General’s philosophical concepts guarantees the appropriateness of these concepts in today’s inconstant world. Clausewitz, On War, Book One, Chapter 1. Clausewitz’s Timeless Trinity deepens our understanding of the Balkan Wars in 1991-1995 and illuminates the relevance of the Prussian strategist’s theory of war. Clausewitz explains, “War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.” Clausewitz also describes war as “the realm of chance. The essays include the subjects or Guerrilla warfare, intelligence, "time and space", chance and uncertainty, and various ways that Clausewitz had been misperceived in the 19th and 20th Centuries. . [7] What Clausewitz Has in Common withAllRealists. On the other hand, friction refers to the force that separates war on paper from real war. “In War,” Clausewitz writes, “the experienced soldier reacts rather in the same way as the human eye does in the dark: the pupil expands to admit what little light there is, discerning objects by degrees, and finally seeing them distinctly. Clausewitz lived through the unprecedented social and political upheaval inaugurated by the French Revolution and spread throughout Europe by the Napoleonic Wars. The great uncertainty of all data in war is a peculiar difficulty, because all action must, to a certain extent, be planned in a mere twilight, which in addition not infrequently—like the effect of a fog or moonshine—gives to things exaggerated dimensions and unnatural appearance. Ironically, these aspects of war and conflict that today’s world undergoes, can render Clausewitz more relevant than ever. Clausewitz'slegacy ifthey fail to subject his propositions to serious debate. Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating. Clausewitz feels that war is at its most basic level, an individual activity. 9. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684529508432286 “Courage, above all things, is the first quality of a warrior.” -- Carl von Clausewitz. Karl Von Clausewitz — ‘Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating.’ Unfortunately, the uncertainty described by Clausewitz is a staple of real military operations, even in peacetime, and wishing it away is a futile endeavor. In fact, one is the absence of the other. - Karl Von Clausewitz quotes from MindZip “Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating.” - Karl Von Clausewitz Clausewitz and Modern Strategy: Handel, Michael I.: Amazon.sg: Books. I was initially inspired, but simply ran out of time. Editor’s note: All quotations from Clausewitz’s On War in this article are drawn from the edition translated by Sir Michael Howard and Peter Paret. #Inspirational … Clausewitz described the uncertainty of factors such as information on which action in war is based as a “fog.” But when it comes to discerning emerging trends on the economic and financial front in Syria, the fog appears to be lifting. For most readers of military history two theorists stand out, the Prussian Carl von Clausewitz and the Chinese Sun Tzu. Search: Advanced Search . In addition to living in very different times (Clausewitz … Today, the ideas of Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) are employed almost ubiquitously in strategic studies, military history and defence literatures, but often in a manner which distorts their true meaning. . Clausewitz argues that war is what unites the trinity. In resource evaluation and reservoir management, uncertainty is prevalent. Clausewitz, of course, was not a sociologist (and perhaps not a strategist either – but that is another question). A 59-Minute Perspective, Understanding Carl von Clausewitz, Martina Sprague, Martina Sprague. The conditions of war have rapidly changed,but Clausewitz accounts for that in his theory of the uncertainty ofwar. /E ˝ #$$#"ˇ"( ˛!$#’ˇ’ ˝˛’ #+" +˛ 0as Clausewitz states and the one imposed by the enemy combatant is becoming more and more unpredictable. The greater they are, the greater the margin that can be left for accidents. Unlike Heisenberg, Clausewitz did not have the mathematical tools available at the time, or even the language to describe the full warfare complexity at times, but he definitely grappled with uncertainty in war and battle as his most fundamental core intellectual construct. For instance with the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, the feelings of fear and uncertainty between Kennedy and Kruschev almost eroded all kind of rational action and morale, coming very close to a nuclear war (Kitchen: 1988, p.36) 5: O’Driscoll, Cian. This is one reason, in Clausewitz’s view, why moral forces are so important. 1. Uncertainty analysis encompasses the quantification and reduction of uncertainty. Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating. Clausewitz noted that “war is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. 10. Hugh Smith is a Visiting Fellow in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy. He is the author of On Clausewitz, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2005. Any book on the nature of war needs to identify its subject. “No one starts a war--or rather, no one in his sense ought to do so--without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by the war and how he intends to conduct it.”. chance and uncertainty in the mind of Clausewitz was the nature of the enemy opposing him: the great Napoleon Bonaparte. Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating. - Carl Von Clausewitz Quotes All serious students of strategy and war will be informed and stimulated by this clear and sound challenge of the conventional wisdom.’ Pascal Vennesson, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore Defence Studies, 10(3), 336-368. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2010.503678 Bonus: Olaf's text shares some curious observations about Clausewitz's dealings with young officers in transgression of the rules. Editor’s note: All quotations from Clausewitz’s On War in this article are drawn from the edition translated by Sir Michael Howard and Peter Paret. Clausewitz discussed “‘the fog of war’” two centuries ago.1 Nonetheless, national leaders, whether autocrats or democrats, set strategic goals which military commanders and planners are obligated to attain. Yet, due to his so outspokenly hostile stance, … compiled by Eric Lewan Words of wisdom from Karl Von Clausewitz, Sir Basil H. Liddel-Hart, and Sun Tzu.It is part of a fuller collection of quotations and aphorisms by other military thinkers on the science and art of warfare, leadership and strategy.